Bitcoin Market Remains Cautious with Prolonged Bear Cycle Predictions

Bitcoin‘s price held steady following the Christmas period, sparking a hesitant attitude in the market as signs suggest declining interest from institutional investors. Market expert Doctor Profit forecasts that the current bear cycle could linger, potentially finding its lowest point between September and October 2026.

What are the Implications of a Prolonged Bear Market?

Doctor Profit advises against maintaining liquid cryptocurrency investments under current conditions and cautions that the market may see a prolonged period of decline. Reflecting his stance, he has transferred his remaining USDT to traditional banking options and refrains from holding any liquid cryptocurrencies. Inside his investment portfolio, he holds a significant short position opened in the $115,000-$125,000 range, and a mid-sized position bought around $85,000.

Short-term market dynamics could see Bitcoin’s value climb to $107,000, followed by a potential downward shift between February and March. Combining Doctor Profit’s forecast of a market bottom in late 2026 with the tepid performance seen during the holiday season, coupled with investor caution and dwindling institutional involvement, paints a picture of sustained market softness.

Can Bitcoin Hold Its Preferred Trading Range?

According to insights from CryptoQuant, the $100,000 mark stands as a crucial short-term resistance level for Bitcoin. This resistance is primarily due to large investors and Binance users clustering their investment efforts around this price. Notably, the average holding cost for newer BTC investors is approximately $100,500, situating this range as pivotal for potential short-term movements.

The downside sees the average Binance spot user buying at around $56,000, which could stabilize as a substantial support level during an extended bear market. More seasoned investors who have held BTC for over 155 days average a cost of about $40,000, indicating substantial profit margins and potential for recent sell-offs.

Technical expert Ali Martinez underscores the significance of the 50-week simple moving average, citing its past cycle importance as a crucial technical indicator. Historically, losing this benchmark has precipitated an average price fall of 54%, forecasting a potential drop to the $40,000 region. Although Martinez does not forecast an outright crash, he emphasizes that recovery above this average is essential to alleviate downward market pressure.

“The market’s ability to reclaim the 50-week moving average could be crucial in mitigating further downside risk,” noted Martinez.

– Average cost for new Bitcoin whales: $100,500, aligning with short-term resistance.
– Binance spot users’ average cost: $56,000, indicating potential support level.
– Long-term holds average $40,000, showing room for profit-taking.
– 50-week simple moving average crucial for assessing long-term trends.

Even with Bitcoin’s steady prices, the community faces a cautious environment due to mixed signals from market indicators and expert opinions. The trajectory remains uncertain with short-term rallies possible, though broader perspectives suggest a sustained bear market risk.