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Polymarket traders are assigning a 21% probability that Bitcoin will climb to $150,000 this year, even as many crypto analysts argue that 2026 is likely to mark Bitcoin’s next major breakout.
As per the current market, “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000. Notably, this price point is below its all-time high. The probabilities drop sharply at higher price levels, with $130,000 carrying a 35% chance, $140,000 falling to 28%, and $150,000 priced at just 21%.
Reports indicate that traders are placing a safe bet, with an 80% likelihood that BTC will reach a peak of $100,000. With this move in place, sources claimed that it was unclear why users opt to be very cautious. Some assumed that they decided to adopt this approach in relation to the end of the four-year cycle, following Bitcoin’s major losses in 2025.
Uncertainties surrounding the fate of Bitcoin spark controversy
Regarding the four-year cycle, it is worth noting that the cycle followed trends around halving events in the history of BTC. It also played a crucial role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem by helping traders forecast future movements. Now that the cycle is losing prominence, analysts suggest that a new trading pattern may be emerging.
Interestingly, despite the crypto market being pessimistic, experts still propose that 2026 will be a strong year for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to announce the US Federal Reserve’s new chair in the upcoming weeks. This news sparked hope in the cryptocurrency industry, as many had anticipated that interest rates would decrease.
Immediately after those assumptions, the prices of precious metals, such as gold and silver, increased significantly, with both reaching new peaks in the last quarter of 2025. Digital assets, on the other hand, remained unchanged.
Analysts are now expressing the likelihood of crucial crypto legislation, the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, to provide straightforward regulations and potentially facilitate significant institutional adoption.
Several analysts from firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein forecast that the price of BTC may reach an all-time high of $150,000 by 2026. Others, like Tom Lee from Fundstrat, who adopted a more positive outlook on the matter, suggested that the cryptocurrency could rise as much as $200,000 to $250,000.
Traders point out some of the limitations surrounding BTC’s growth
Bitcoin’s price ignited tension in the crypto industry after dropping sharply in November. Analysts claim that some factors could not sustain the cryptocurrency’s price above the $110,000 level. These factors were institutional investments and corporate purchases.
They provided various reasons to back this claim. Among these reasons, one key factor raised is the surging interest in Bitcoin options, particularly those related to the BlackRock iShares spot Bitcoin (IBIT) exchange-traded fund.
In the meantime, it was confirmed that the total open interest in Bitcoin options escalated from a record of $39 billion noted in December 2024 to a new level in December 2025. Analysts explained that this rise led to heightened awareness of the covered call strategy in the ecosystem.
Critics, on the other hand, expressed their belief that by leasing out their anticipated earnings for a fee, major investors have unintentionally set a restriction that halts Bitcoin from attaining its next substantial growth phase. To better understand this point, analysts noted that it is useful to perceive a covered call as an option between earning a higher price and receiving a regular income.
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