Is Bitcoin on Shaky Ground Amid Rising Geopolitical Strains?

Bitcoin is struggling to surpass the critical threshold of $72,000, continuing to trade below this significant resistance level. Despite continued accumulation by institutional entities such as BitMine ETH and Strategy, persistent negative sentiment clouds the market, raising questions about sustained trends. Heightened geopolitical tensions, especially concerning Iran, fuel volatility and contribute to ongoing sell-offs in the cryptocurrency space.

How is Geopolitical Uncertainty Impacting Crypto Prices?

Tensions in Iran rise as the country’s Foreign Ministry announces progress in negotiations for a nuclear deal, although exclusion of its missile arsenal remains a sticking point. Former President Donald Trump expressed optimism for a breakthrough. However, without a concrete agreement, market volatility persists, further fueled by Trump’s unpredictable nature.

Prior to the U.S. markets opening, Bitcoin mirrored the declines in U.S. equity futures, dropping by 1.7% to $67,600. This trend highlights ongoing issues with equity futures alongside geopolitical strains and discussions around Federal Reserve interest rate policies, creating a challenging environment for Bitcoin optimists.

Market dynamics suggest a bearish outlook as flows across crypto exchanges turn negative. Investor concerns escalate as market volatility compounds uncertainties.

“The flows remain negative: U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $360 million in outflows last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net withdrawals. With the CryptoQuant Fear and Greed Index sitting at 10—indicative of extreme fear—market sentiment is weak.”

Will Growing Stablecoin Dominance Shift Market Risks?

Signs indicate a decline in USDT reserves and continuous outflows from major exchanges like Binance. Investors appear to be adopting a risk-averse stance, cashing out cryptocurrencies and tilting towards safer holdings. CryptoBullet’s analysis of USDT dominance shows a potential upward trend, indicative of heightened risk aversion within the market.

“Looking at the weekly chart of USDT dominance, it feels reminiscent of May 2022. In the first week of February 2026, USDT.D printed a similar long upper-wick green candle. My projection is that, within the next three months, this wick fills in and USDT dominance rises even further—potentially entering my 10-11% peak target zone.”

Should current market caution persist, the shift from riskier cryptocurrencies towards stable assets like USDT may intensify. Analysts identify $60,000 as Bitcoin’s key support level, with $50,000 as a potential target if geopolitical tensions or macroeconomic disruptions increase.

The increase in stablecoin dominance underscores the market’s cautious stance. While some institutional players maintain strategic accumulation, the broader trend indicates risk aversion and cautious observation amid lingering geopolitical and economic risks.

Investor caution pervades both crypto and traditional markets, as participants continually evaluate digital asset exposure. Unless diplomatic clarity and macroeconomic stability are achieved soon, market sensitivity to geopolitical fluctuations is likely to persist.